Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 33.135286 39.281291 46.008902 53.888558 62.831809 72.633870 84.155710
2025-02-02 25.554152 34.115706 44.375047 57.432358 73.454515 92.313809 116.017936
2025-02-09 20.566660 30.140581 42.439284 59.088583 80.697160 107.431134 142.599304
2025-02-16 16.984529 27.003608 40.665976 60.140054 86.597258 120.656006 167.085272
2025-02-23 13.987853 24.010586 38.454565 60.025150 90.540770 131.203078 188.349927
2025-03-02 11.383708 21.070276 35.797160 58.782869 92.545863 138.976171 206.046301
2025-03-09 9.564643 18.998650 34.067548 58.544490 95.718020 148.267868 226.000911
2025-03-16 7.486688 16.096870 30.620489 55.252147 94.011558 150.409827 235.911595
2025-03-23 6.675197 15.267558 30.381752 56.863685 99.647556 163.235625 261.373277
2025-03-30 5.587442 13.713010 28.695873 55.909646 101.156657 169.959065 278.186747
2025-04-06 5.196622 13.458240 29.241937 58.684764 108.676817 185.961840 309.207922
2025-04-13 4.069369 11.444031 26.308433 55.156135 105.668520 185.652999 315.739426
2025-04-20 3.622189 10.909707 26.257039 57.005407 112.175490 201.193067 348.203029
2025-04-27 3.388841 10.843641 27.153765 60.734608 122.244497 223.069644 391.716386
2025-05-04 3.003341 10.310139 27.010317 62.468768 128.931877 239.793601 427.844168
2025-05-11 2.622431 9.687733 26.576774 63.568863 134.520367 254.929531 462.006084
2025-05-18 2.215208 8.875654 25.593202 63.448663 137.843265 266.398512 490.672004
2025-05-25 1.805321 7.922571 24.122847 62.148968 138.840298 273.916193 513.125330
2025-06-01 1.517882 7.253786 23.210851 61.899545 141.747570 284.768648 541.395473
2025-06-08 1.142028 6.131549 20.955323 58.453782 138.184207 284.097543 550.311181
2025-06-15 1.024498 5.907576 20.998783 60.140627 144.820604 301.726201 590.741240
2025-06-22 0.834139 5.314646 19.930807 59.142056 145.958360 309.487726 614.516715
2025-06-29 0.784451 5.299457 20.494019 62.046319 155.251803 332.435810 665.254928